Everyone has their ideas on what will happen in 2004. It's time for mine. (Warning: No jokes here. Just IT industry predictions).
- RedHat will be acquired by a major vendor. We saw it happen with SuSE, and RedHat is already feeling the squeeze of the open-source model (no more free software!) The truth is that RedHat needs the marketing engine of a major firm if it wants to be successful. Look towards a company like IBM or possibly (dare I go out on a ledge?) even Sun to announce their acquisition before the end of '04.
- More and more companies will push software development off-shore. It won't be until 2005 or 2006 that corporations realize that over-seas development stifles innovation and will ultimately cost them more. Nevertheless, off-shore outsourcing in the IT field will never go away completely as there will always be a business case that fits the mold well enough to justify the headaches. This means the technology "worker bee" population is in danger, but minimally. On the other side of the coin, those in the tech industry doing high-level work including design, implementation, and strategy, will grow in demand in 2004 and beyond.
- SCO will end up with egg on their face as IBM takes them to the cleaners in the court-room. I'm almost embarrassed to even include this on my list of predictions since it seems so obvious. Here's the real prediction though - Darl McBride and other key players in the SCO world will be the target of a federal investigation before the year is over.
- The tech sector will make a very slow recovery, the Nasdaq will increase, but only slightly. Consumer confidence will increase in 2004, but not enough to drive a booming tech come-back. Settle in and buckle down folks. THIS is the new economy for the IT world.
- The volume of spam in my inbox will increase in 2004. The latest anti-spam legislation will have no effect, despite several prosecutions under the law that will happen over the next 12 months. It's simply too easy, and too profitable to spam. Until those two problems are resolved, no amount of 'making it against the law' will solve the problem.
- Wireless / cell phone rates will be up to 40 percent cheaper by the end of the year. This be mostly due to the number portability laws and increased competition. Unfortunately, all of this competition will drive at least one of the "big 5" carriers to file for chapter 11 or be absorbed by another player.